Feedstock Production

This page provides supporting information (SI) prepared for the manuscript "Winter rye biomass can be an abundant and affordable US energy resource." It summarizes research developed through collaboration between USDA and Penn State winter rye subject matter experts and economists from ORNL's Bioresource Science and Engineering Group.

We obtained 14-year average winter rye yield simulations from the RyeGro soil-plant-atmosphere model previously developed for 30 US locations and six planting and harvesting date scenarios (Feyereisen et al. 2013). We used county-level regression model yields for the scenarios where cereal rye is planted 2 days after the prior corn grain or soybean harvest, and the subsequent corn or soybean crop is planted 7 days after the rye harvest on land in continuous corn and corn/soy rotation. These county-scale winter rye yields were inputs (SI.1) for the POLYSYS economic model (Ugarte and Ray 2000) used to estimate future agricultural biomass supplies for the DOE 2023 Billion-Ton Report (DOE 2024). Regional agronomic budget inputs (e.g., fertilizer and seeding rates, labor and machinery costs) were developed based on Malone et al. (2023) and the assumption that rye would be harvested and hauled wet in a wagon to an on-farm pit or silage bunker rather than being baled (SI.2).

Modeled fertilizer applications were 45 kg/ha of N, 15 kg/ha of P, and 56 kg/ha of K (41 lbs/acre of N, 13 lbs of P and 50 lbs/ac of K). The N fertilizer application rate was based on results from several studies across 6 states in the midwestern and southeastern US where responses to N fertilization rates from 0 to 120 kg/ha were mixed (Malone et al. 2022; Malone et al. 2023, Crespo et al. 2025; Balkcom et al. 2018). In a 13-year randomized plot trial, Crespo et al. (2024) observed that winter rye shoot biomass responded to both warmth (growing degree days) and precipitation. In a two-year trial with adequate rainfall both years, Crespo et al. (2025) observed that rye responded more to warmer spring temperatures than to N fertilizers. In a cool spring with yields < 3 Mg/ha supplemental N fertilization did not improve yields compared with natural N mineralization from soil organic matter (0 fertilizer N), but in a warmer spring when there were sufficient growing degree days, supplemental N fertilizer at 30 and 60 kg N/ha resulted in higher yields. While we used the midpoint of 30 and 60 kg/ha (45 kg N/ha) for this study’s national projections, location-specific fertilizer recommendations should be based on local climate and soil conditions.

Western US counties where evaporation exceeds precipitation were excluded from consideration since our budgets do not account for irrigation; unirrigated rye in these areas would consume soil water needed for corn and soybeans. In the eastern US with ample spring soil water, we assumed rainfed winter rye even if the summer crop is irrigated; so winter rye was allowed in these counties if profitable given county yields and costs.

We started POLYSYS with the 2023 USDA agricultural baseline and ran the model out to 2041 with annual timesteps and price intervals to simulate a mature market demand for biomass. Winter rye production was limited to locations where the net returns of corn/rye/soy rotations were greater than the net returns from corn/soy rotations. County-level biomass estimates (SI.3) and production areas (SI.4) are summarized here for three biomass farmgate rice offerings in dollars per dry US short ton: $30/dt, $70/dt, and $150/dt. At a price offering of $150/dt ($165/Mg), we found a potential winter rye biomass supply of 214 M dry short tons (194 million Mg) produced across 80.7 million acres (32.7 million ha).

We modeled winter rye production relative to a “pessimistic case” of 10% lower rye yields and 10% higher production costs relative to an “optimistic case” of 10% rye yield improvements and 10% lower production costs (SI.5). With improvements in crop yield and harvesting efficiency, winter rye biomass production could increase to 230 million Mg yr-1. We then compared the economic returns and acreages of winter rye to other bioenergy crops and residues recently modeled for DOE's national biomass resource assessment. We found that winter rye is competitive with other cellulosic feedstocks across a range of prices and can produce more biomass at a lower cost than perennial grasses (switchgrass and miscanthus), crop residues (corn stover and wheat straw), and woody biomass (poplar and willow) (SI.5).

Because this crop is grown on land that would otherwise be fallow, we found that high price offerings and large volumes of winter rye would have little or no impact on national 20-year average equilibrium food crop prices (SI.6). Winter rye is easier to establish and remove than perennial crops like miscanthus or willow, meaning that it has lower risk and is more likely to expand across acres than other dedicated energy crops (SI.7).

We calculated energy and fertilizer yields from the potential 194 million Mg annual biomass supply at a price offering of $165/Mg by assuming the rye was anaerobically digested to produce renewable natural gas (RNG). We used previously published biogas production rates (Herbstritt et al. 2022) and calculated net energy based on both agronomic and digester operations as well as an average round trip transportation distance of 129 km to a centralized digester (SI.2). For this biomass production quantity, annual bioenergy yields would be 1.59 EJ per year (SI.8). If all of this winter rye were converted to natural gas through anaerobic digestion, we estimate that there would be enough nitrogen in the digestate to recover 1.3 million Mg of N fertilizer (SI.8).

The 8 referenced file attachments of supporting information (SI) are provided below the Citations. Additional POLYSYS outputs for the Winter Rye scenarios exceed the 8 MB file size limit for this site but are available upon request. Please contact biokdfadmin@ornl.gov for access.

Citations:
Balkcom, K.S., Duzy, L.M., Arriaga, F.J., Delaney, D.P. and Watts, D.B. (2018), Fertilizer Management for a Rye Cover Crop to Enhance Biomass Production. Agronomy Journal, 110: 1233-1242. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2017.08.0505.
Crespo, C., Malone, R. W., Radke, A., Kovar, J. L., Emmett, B. D., Feyereisen, G. W., Thorp, K. R., Richard, T., & O'Brien, P. L. (2025). Rye performance in central Iowa under different seeding and nitrogen fertilizer rates. Agronomy Journal, 117, e70112. https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70112.
Crespo, C., O’Brien, P. L., Ruis, S.J., Kovar, J.L., Kaspar, T.C. (2024). Thermal time and precipitation dictate cereal rye shoot biomass production, Field Crops Research 315, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2024.109473.
Feyereisen, G. W., G.T.T. Camargo, R.E. Baxter, J.M. Baker, and T.L. Richard (2013). Cellulosic biofuel potential of a winter rye double crop across the US corn-soybean belt. Agronomy Journal 105(3):631-642.
Herbstritt S., T. L. Richard, S. H. Lence, H. Wu, P. L. O’Brien, B. D. Emmett, T. C. Kaspar, D. L. Karlen, K. Kohler, and R. W. Malone (2022). Rye as an energy cover crop: management, forage quality, and revenue opportunities for feed and bioenergy. Agriculture 12:1691.
Malone, R.W., O’Brien, P.L., Herbstritt, S., Emmett, B.D., Karlen, D.L., Kaspar, T.C., Kohler, K., Radke, A., Lence, S.H., Wu, H., and Richard, T.L. (2022). Rye soybean double-crop: planting method and N fertilization effects in the North Central US. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170522000096
Malone R.W., A. Radke, S. Herbstritt, H. Wu, Z. Qi, B. D. Emmett, M. J. Helmers, L. A. Schulte, G. W. Feyereisen, P. L. O’Brien, J. L. Kovar, N. Rogovska, E. J. Kladivko, K. R. Thorp, T. C. Kaspar, D. B. Jaynes, D. L. Karlen, and T. L. Richard (2023). Harvested winter rye energy cover crop: Multiple benefits for North Central US. Environmental Research Letters 18:(7), 074009.
Ugarte D.G. and D. E. Ray (2000). Biomass and bioenergy applications of the POLYSYS modeling framework. Biomass and Bioenergy 18(4), 291-308.
US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Agricultural Projections to 2034. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board, US Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Long-Term Projections Report OCE-2025-1, 114 pp. (2025).
US Department of Energy (DOE). 2023 Billion‐Ton Report: An Assessment of US Renewable Carbon Resources. M. H. Langholtz (Lead). Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. ORNL/SPR-2024/3103 (2024). https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/2023-billion-ton-report-assessmen…
US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Agricultural Projections to 2034. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board, US Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Long-Term Projections Report OCE-2025-1, 114 pp. (2025).

This dataset contains data on agricultural residue production by county from 2022 to 2041. The agricultural residue includes barley straw, corn stover, oats straw, sorghum stubble, and wheat straw. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al., 2024) for the mature-market medium scenario with biomass market prices from $50 to $130 per dry ton.

For access to this dataset, please use the contact form and indicate the dataset by name.

This dataset contains data on agricultural crop production by county from 2022 to 2041. The agricultural crop in this dataset includes barley, biomass sorghum, corn, cotton, energy cane, eucalyptus, grain sorghum, hay, miscanthus, oats, pine, poplar, rice, soybean, switchgrass, wheat, and willow. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al., 2024) for the mature-market medium scenario with biomass market prices from $30 to $130 per dry ton.

For access to this dataset, please use the contact form and indicate the dataset by name.

Description: BT23 update using the 2025 baseline and starting results in 2024 for Med $70 with updated budgets. Cost updates include:
• Increased the nitrogen application for the following crops: willow, camelina, carinata, pennycress, and willow.
• Removed roundup during establishment for the following crops: camelina.
• Harvest costs were updated because the combine width was adjusted. This affected the following crops: barley, camelina, carinata, corn, oat, pennycress, rice, sorghum, soybean, and wheat.
• Harvest cost was updated with biomass sorghum because an additional tractor was added to pull the high dump forage wagon, and the wagon width was adjusted to not constrain the harvest operation with the combine.
• Added poplar in the ag budget database for regions 1 and 13.

Because of the file size limit, the datasets are separated by feedstock type. The corresponding feedstock for each file are listed below.
med_crop_bdgt_conv_engy_070_20250914_com_crop_1.zip: Barley, Corn, Cotton, Grain sorghum, Hay
med_crop_bdgt_conv_engy_070_20250914_com_crop_2.zip: Oats, Rice, Soybeans, Wheat
med_crop_bdgt_conv_engy_070_20250914_en_crop.zip: Energy crops
med_crop_carb_070_20250914_com_crop_1.zip: Barley, Corn, Cotton, Grain sorghum, Hay
med_crop_carb_070_20250914_com_crop_2.zip: Oats, Rice, Soybeans, Wheat
med_crop_carb_070_20250914_en_crop.zip: Energy crops
med_crop_econ_070_20250914_com_crop_1.zip: Barley, Corn, Cotton
med_crop_econ_070_20250914_com_crop_2.zip: Grain sorghum, Hay, Oats
med_crop_econ_070_20250914_com_crop_3.zip: Rice, Soybeans
med_crop_econ_070_20250914_com_crop_4.zip: Wheat
med_crop_econ_070_20250914_herb_en_crop.zip: Herbaceous energy crops
med_crop_econ_070_20250914_woody_en_crop.zip: Woody energy crops
med_crop_prod_070_20250914_com_crop_1.zip: Barley, Corn, Cotton, Grain sorghum, Hay
med_crop_prod_070_20250914_com_crop_2.zip: Oats, Rice, Soybeans, Wheat
med_crop_prod_070_20250914_en_crop.zip: Energy crops
med_crop_qnty_070_20250914_com_crop_1.zip: Barley, Corn, Cotton, Grain sorghum, Hay
med_crop_qnty_070_20250914_com_crop_2.zip: Oats, Rice, Soybeans, Wheat
med_crop_qnty_070_20250914_en_crop.zip: Energy crops
med_resd_carb_070_20250914.zip: Agricultural residues
med_resd_econ_070_20250914.zip: Agricultural residues
med_resd_prod_070_20250914.zip: Agricultural residues

This dataset contains national summary data on agricultural crop and residue production, which include agricultural crop, agricultural residue, herbaceous energy crop, and woody energy crop.

Each tab in the Excel file contains information corresponding to a resource category, and within each tab, there is a structured table presenting resource production (in dry short ton) by offered price (in USD per dry short ton) across multiple scenarios (mature-market low, mature-market medium, and mature-market high). Consistent with the 2023 Billion-Ton report for agricultural resources, these scenarios represent potential production scenarios for 2041.

List of the resources shown in this dataset:
- Agricultural crop: Barley, Corn, Cotton, Grain sorghum, Hay, Oats, Rice, Soybeans, Wheat
- Agricultural residue: Barley straw, Corn stover, Oats straw, Sorghum stubble, Wheat straw
- Herbaceous energy crop: Biomass sorghum, Energy cane, Miscanthus, Switchgrass
- Woody energy crop: Eucalyptus, Pine, Poplar, Willow

Yield (i.e., tons of biomass per acre per year) is a key driver of production potential for many biomass resources. For agricultural resources, crop- and county-specific yields are an input to the economic modeling used to assess biomass production capacity in the BT23. Yields for agricultural biomass resources were derived from field trials from the Sun Grant Initiative Regional Feedstock Partnership, which served the basis for calibration of county yields (see 2016 Billion-Ton Report section 4.2.4)
For the 2016 and 2023 Billion-Ton reports, a workflow was established to provide a series of yields including biophysical, harvestable potential, future year- and scenario-specific potential, stand-age specific potential, and final solution yields. These datasets are comprised of several yield types including 1) PRISM Yield, 2) Base Harvestable Mean Annual Increment, 3) Mature Harvestable Yield (or MAI) by scenario, 4) Harvestable Yield for the Complete Crop Rotation by Scenario, and 5) Solution Yield by Scenario. Each yield type is defined below in the metadata.

This dataset contains data on agricultural crop and residue production by county from 2022 to 2041. The agricultural crop in this dataset includes barley, biomass sorghum, corn, cotton, energy cane, eucalyptus, grain sorghum, hay, miscanthus, oats, pine, poplar, rice, soybean, switchgrass, wheat, and willow, and the agricultural residue includes barley straw, corn stover, oats straw, sorghum stubble, and wheat straw. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al., 2024) for the mature-market medium scenario with biomass market prices of up to $70 per dry ton.

For access to this dataset, please use the contact form and indicate the dataset by name.

This dataset contains data on agricultural crop and residue production by county in 2030. The agricultural crops in this dataset include barley, corn, cotton, grain sorghum, hay, oats, rice, soybeans, and wheat. The agricultural residues include barley straw, corn stover, oats straw, sorghum stubble, and wheat straw. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al.,2024) for the near-term scenario with biomass market prices of up to $70 per dry ton.

For access to this dataset, please use the contact form and indicate this dataset by name.

This International Feedstocks data portal supports the Global Biomass Resource Assessment, a multi-country government-led initiative dedicated to advancing the global transition to a bioeconomy. This product shares data assembled from citable sources around the globe, as reported for current biomass production as well as potential additional future production in some cases. Data were compiled into consistent classes based on the most recent reports received (ranging from 2018 to 2024).

The results from this new global sustainable supply assessment will allow scientists, policymakers, and industry leaders to explore potential sources of biomass as a foundation for a global bioeconomy, supporting fuels, chemicals, materials and other products. The assessment was conducted by researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy(DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), with funding provided by the U.S. Department of State, and managed through DOE’s Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), on behalf of the CEM Biofuture Initiative and Mission Innovation. This data includes biomass resources available in many developing economies which often do not have fully advanced biomass industries. The assessment also aims to address the need for internationally accepted benchmarks quantifying sustainable biomass feedstock supplies that can be available to support a growing bioeconomy.

Download the Mapping and Synthesis of International Biomass Supply Assessments (pdf, January 2025) document for more information.

The link below provides access to the data which can be filtered by country of interest and resource, as well as timeframe for the available biomass. The data are being shared based on the information received to date (references to sources are noted for each reported nation). We aim to improve and update this preliminary version of the data set in the future, based on user feedback. Please send suggestions for improvement and references to additional sources of data, or corrections to the reported data. Data comments can be sent to biomass.updates@ornl.gov

International Feedstocks Data View

This data can be filtered by country and downloaded for further analysis. For example, the country of Uruguay is summarized below for available resources by year of production.

This dataset contains data on forest production. The forestry products in this dataset includes hardwood, softwood, and mixed, and the dataset was obtained from the database of the 2023 Billion-Ton Report (Davis et al., 2024). The intended use is for the Feedstock Production Emissions to Air Model (FPEAM).

If you would also like access to this dataset, please use the "contact" button for a request to our research staff.