Supporting Data

The economic potential for Eucalyptus spp. production for jet fuel additives in the United States: A 20 year projection suite of scenarios ranging from $110 Mg-1 to $220 Mg-1 utilizing the POLYSYS model.

Link to the website with documentation and download instructions for the PNNL Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a community model or long-term, global energy, agriculture, land use, and emissions. BioEnergy production, transformation, and use is an integral part of GCAM modeling and scenarios.

http://jgcri.github.io/gcam-doc/

Price Scenarios at $54 and $119 were simulated for Switchgrass, Miscanthus and Willow production from 2017 to 2040. These analyses were used in Woodbury, Peter B., et al. 2018. "Improving water quality in the Chesapeake Bay using payments for ecosystem services for perennial biomass for bioenergy and biofuel production." Biomass and Bioenergy 114:132-142. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2017.01.024.

This dataset was utilized in a report to highlight parameters that affect near-term sustainable supply of corn stover and forest resources at $56 and $74 per dry ton delivered. While the report focus is restricted to 2018, the modeling runs are available from 2016-2022. In the 2016 Billion-ton Report (BT16), two stover cases were presented. In this dataset, we vary technical levels of those assumptions to measure stover supply response and to evaluate the major determinants of stover supply. In each of these cases, the supply is modeled first at the farmgate at prices up to $80 per dry ton for five deterministic scenarios. Building on this dataset, a supplementary dataset of delivered supply was modeled for 800k dry ton per year capacity facilities in two facility siting approaches. Results were summarized across delivered supply curves for twelve scenarios. The resulting supply curves are highly elastic, resulting in a range of potential supplies across scenarios at specified prices. Interactive visualization of these data allows exploration into any specified nth plant supply sensitivity to key variables and spatial distribution of stover resources.

The analysis is economic supply risk and doesn’t account for disruptions from competing demands, namely livestock feed and bedding markets.

This spreadsheet serves as an Input file to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Waste-to-Energy System Simulation (WESyS) model developed in Stella Pro (isee systems, Lebanon, NH). WESyS is a national-level system dynamics model that simulates energy production from three sectors of the U.S. waste-to-energy industry: landfills, confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs), and publically owned treatment works (POTWs).

For our purposes, a scenario is a set of model conditions (i.e. parameter settings) that approximate a specified condition or potential reality. The RIN/LCFS scenario represents biofuel production incentives from both the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). To implement this scenario, we modified the model structure to 1) accept time series data that represent the production incentives from the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) market and 2) mimic the low carbon fuel standard credit calculations. For both of these programs, the incentive is accrued at the point of production.

This spreadsheet serves as an Input file to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Waste-to-Energy System Simulation (WESyS) model developed in Stella Pro (isee systems, Lebanon, NH). WESyS is a national-level system dynamics model that simulates energy production from three sectors of the U.S. waste-to-energy industry: landfills, confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs), and publically owned treatment works (POTWs).

For our purposes, a scenario is a set of model conditions (i.e. parameter settings) that approximate a specified condition or potential reality. The rate-based development scenario outlined here represents the ability of publically owned treatment works (POTWs) to take advantage of rate of return regulation to recover the cost of capital associated with the development of waste-to-energy facilities (i.e., POTWs can recover costs by increasing the rates that they charge their customers for water treatment). Under rate-based financing, there is a tendency to invest in the most expensive technology. This is a well-recognized drawback of using a rate-based mechanism to cover capital investment. In California, recommendations have been made to limit rate-base increases to finance projects that directly tie into a state goal and increase demand for electricity. As a result, we limited the rate-based option to be available only to California wastewater treatement plants investing in electricity generation.

This spreadsheet serves as an Input file to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Waste-to-Energy System Simulation (WESyS) model developed in Stella Pro (isee systems, Lebanon, NH). WESyS is a national-level system dynamics model that simulates energy production from three sectors of the U.S. waste-to-energy industry: landfills, confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs), and publically owned treatment works (POTWs).

For our purposes, a scenario is a set of model conditions (i.e. parameter settings) that approximate a specified condition or potential reality. The non-negative feedstock cost scenario outlined here represents a potential future reality where feedstock costs for waste become positive (i.e., there is a market for wastes). For the three types of facilities represented in WESyS (i.e., wastewater treatment plants, landfills, and concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs)), only CAFOs are expected to have positive feedstock costs for manure in the near future. If this were to happen, CAFOs might chose to sell their waste rather than build on-site waste-to-energy (WTE) facilities. For this scenario, we adopted a farmer-owned cooperative model in which farmers may sell their manure to a cooperatively owned and operated WTE facility. For these farmer-owned cooperatives, we have allow for technology development under three pathways (Hydrothermal Liquifaction (HTL), Fischer-Tropsch (FT), and Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)) that are assumed to operate at full commercial scale. For a given technology pathway to become feasible, there must be enough animal units available to supply the commercial throughput requirement of the technology.