This paper examines the impact of declining energy prices on biofuels production and use and its implications to agricultural commodity markets. It uses PEATSim, a dynamic partial equilibrium, multi-commodity, multi-country global trade model of the agriculture sector to analyze the interaction between biofuel, crop and livestock sectors. The ability of countries to achieve their energy goals will be affected by future direction of petroleum prices.
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PEATSim (Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation) is a dynamic, partial equilibrium, mathematical-based model that enables users to reach analytical solutions to problems, given a set of parameters, data, and initial
conditions. This theoretical tool developed by ERS incorporates a wide range of domestic and border policies that enables it to estimate the market and trade effects of policy changes on agricultural markets. PEATSim captures
Agricultural markets often feature significant transport costs and spatially distributed production and processing which causes spatial imperfect competition. Spatial economics considers the firms’ decisions regarding location and spatial price strategy separately, usually on the demand side, and under restrictive assumptions. Therefore, alternative approaches are needed to explain, e.g., the location of new ethanol plants in the U.S. at peripheral as well as at central locations and the observation of different spatial price strategies in the market.
A system of equations representing corn supply, feed demand, export demand, food, alcohol and industrial (FAI) demand, and corn price is estimated by three-stage least squares. A price dependent reduced form equation is then formed to investigate the effect of ethanol production on the national average corn price. The elasticity of corn price with respect to ethanol production is then obtained. Results suggest that ethanol production has a positive impact on the national corn price and that the demand from FAI has a greater impact on the corn price than other demand categories.
Spatial Marketing Patterns for Corn Under the Condition of Increasing Ethanol Production in the U.S.
Events external to agriculture have set in motion the conditions for structural change in the marketing of corn in the U.S. These included a rapid increase in the price of crude oil from $40 per barrel to over $100 caused by hurricanes, geopolitical events, an increased global demand for energy from countries like China and India, and in December 2007, the U.S. raising the renewable fuel standards. The results of this research show that there could be significant changes in the historical utilization and marketing of corn in the U.S.
When the lignocellulosic biofuels industry reaches maturity and many types of biomass sources become economically viable, management of multiple feedstock supplies – that vary in their yields, density (tons per unit area), harvest window, storage and seasonal costs, storage losses, transport distance to the production plant – will become increasingly important for the success of individual enterprises. The manager’s feedstock procurement problem is modeled as a multi-period sequence problem to account for dynamic management over time.
FAOSTAT provides time-series and cross sectional data relating to food and agriculture for some 200 countries.
The national version of FAOSTAT, CountrySTAT, is being developed and implemented in a number of target countries, primarily in sub-saharan Africa. It will offer a two-way data exchange facility between countries and FAO as well as a facility to store data at the national and sub-national levels.
This database contains current and historical official USDA data on production, supply and distribution of agricultural commodities for the United States and key producing and consuming countries.
The purpose of this research was to determine whether indirect land use occurs and if so to what extent. Indirect land use is a change from non-cropland to cropland (e.g. deforestation) that may occur in response to increasing scarcity of cropland. As farmers worldwide respond to higher crop prices in order to maintain the global food supply and demand balance, pristine lands are cleared and converted to new cropland to replace the crops for feed and food that were diverted elsewhere to biofuels production.
Fast-growing, oil-producing species of microalgae have become the focus of attention for both biomass and biodiesel biofuels, but questions remain about scalability, economics, and the competition between large-scale microalgae cultivation and agriculture, with regard to water, fertilizer, and land use. By cultivating microalgae on domestic wastewater, the water and fertilizer problems can be overcome, and by using algae for improved wastewater treatment, economic and environmental benefits can be realized.
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Understanding the Growth of the Cellulosic Ethanol Industry, D. Sandor and R. Wallace, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, S. Peterson The Peterson Group, Technical Report, NREL/TP-150-42120 April 2008
This report, generally referred to as the Billion-Ton Study or 2005 BTS, is an estimate of “potential” biomass available within the contiguous United States based on assumptions about inventory production capacity, availability, and technology.
Funded from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) originally developed this application for biopower with funding from the Environmental Protection Agency's Blue Skyways Collaborative. The Department of Energy's Office of Biomass Program provided funding for biofuels functionality. More information on funding agencies is available: http://www.blueskyways.org and http://www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/.
Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release.
Soaring global food prices are threatening to push more poor people back below the poverty line; this will probably become aggravated by the serious challenge that increasing population and climate changes are posing for food security. There is growing evidence that human activities involving fossil fuel consumption and land use are contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and consequently changing the climate worldwide. The finite nature of fossil fuel reserves is causing concern about energy security and there is a growing interest in the use of renewable energy sources such as biofuels.
This paper describes a preliminary analysis of two technological routes (based on hydrolysis and on gasification + Fischer–Tropsch conversion process) of biofuels production from cellulosic materials. In this paper it was considered the integration of the two alternative routes to a conventional distillery of ethanol production based on fermentation of sugarcane juice. Sugarcane bagasse is the biomass considered as input in both second-generation routes.
The state of the art of hydrolysis-fermentation technologies to produce ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass, as well as developing technologies, is evaluated. Promising conversion concepts for the short-, middle- and long-term are defined. Their technical performance was analysed, and results were used for economic evaluations. The current available technology, which is based on dilute acid hydrolysis, has about 35% efficiency (HHV) from biomass to ethanol. The overall efficiency, with electricity co-produced from the not fermentable lignin, is about 60%.
The present study is a review of published investigations regarding the economy of ethanol production from lignocellulosic material. The objective is to present relations between and tendencies observed in different cost estimates. The influence of plant capacity and overall product yield on the ethanol production cost is investigated, as well as variations in capital costs in the different processes. The underlying technical and economic assumptions show a large variation between the various studies published. The variation in the ethanol production cost is large, from 18 to 151 US¢/l.
A dry-grind ethanol from corn process analysis is performed. After defining a complete model of the process, a pinch technology analysis is carried out to optimise energy and water demands. The so-defined base case is then discussed in terms of production costs and process profitability. A detailed sensitivity analysis on the most important process and financial variables is carried out. The possibility to adopt different alternatives for heat and power generation combined to the process is evaluated.